OCTOBER WRAP UP

Another strong lineup of films opened in theaters throughout October and into November, proving this season will have an extremely deep field in comparison to recent years.  The last half dozen years or so have had major “front-runners” in most of the categories and hotly contested races in just a handful (and those contested races usually had a clear top two, ex. Streep and Davis for Actress last year), not unlike the swing states in the recent election.  However, this year we seem to have just the opposite, a litany of categories with no clear leader and up to three players in a lot of races instead of the standard first/second choice.  Before diving into the races let’s look at some of these Oct/Nov films and their Oscar chances:

Films I’ve seen

-        ‘Seven Psychopaths’: Best Picture would be a long shot but Best Original Screenplay for Martin McDonagh wouldn’t be farfetched whatsoever.  Christopher Walken could get a Supporting Actor nod but with Best Lead/Supporting Actor being loaded this year it could be tough.

-        ‘Skyfall’: Whenever you have Mendes behind the camera you’re never out of it but as I’ve touched on in past posts, larger blockbuster films have had little success in recent years compared to the late 90s/early 2000s (‘Dark Knight’ trilogy vs. ‘Titanic’ and ‘Gladiator’).  Best chances for the latest Bond entry would be Cinematography, Supporting Actor Javier Bardem, Art Direction, Editing and other tech categories, and long shots would be Picture and Daniel Craig as Lead Actor.

Films I haven’t but am planning to see:

-        ‘Lincoln’: From what people are saying we could have up to three acting noms; Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, and Sally Field, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Costume Design, Makeup, Art Direction, Editing and tech categories.  Spielberg didn’t do so well with the critics the last time he took on a period piece (last year’s ‘War Horse’, severely underrated in my opinion) but early reviews for his Abraham Lincoln biopic have been overwhelmingly positive.  After seeing it this upcoming weekend I will probably have a full review.

-        ‘Flight’: ‘Forrest Gump’ director Robert Zemeckis’ first live action film since ‘Cast Away’ in 2000 has a good shot at securing a Lead Acting nom for Denzel Washington and a decent shot at Best Picture.  Less likely would be a Director or Screenplay nom but not out of the realm of possibility.

-        ‘The Sessions’: Truly an actor’s film, nominations for John Hawkes and Helen Hunt are safe bets and an Original Screenplay appearance wouldn’t be unexpected.

-        ‘Wreck-It-Ralph’: Best Animated Feature could be the most exciting race in the category in some time, ‘Ralph’ is joined by ‘Frankenweenie’, ‘The Secret World of Arriety’, and ‘Brave’.

Films I have not/will not see:

-        ‘Perks of Being a Wallflower’, ‘Cloud Atlas’, and ‘Smashed’: No Oscar predictions on these films because there is little to no buzz surrounding them and I haven’t experienced any of them myself (combination of lack of interest and lackluster reviews are keeping me away).  Only surprises I have heard out of these would be Tom Hanks for Best Actor ‘Cloud Atlas’ or ‘Perks’ for a very unexpected Screenplay or Picture nomination. 

The Races

These are races that have at least three films with “good” chances at a win come Oscar night.  This is purely speculative and the chances of frontrunners appearing as January nears is always a possibility, but this should highlight how deep the field is at this point:

Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original and Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Editing, Makeup, Song, Score, and all of the tech categories.  That only leaves the Actress categories, which I believe are still up for grabs but in my estimation are already one or two person races at this point.

Coming up this week and into next I will have a wrap up of the Denver Film Festival as well as a full review on ‘Silver Linings Playbook’.  Films to see in the near future include ‘Lincoln’, ‘Flight’, and ‘The Sessions’ as well as ‘Life of Pi’, ‘Hitchcock’, and ‘Killing Them Softly’ all before we crack December.  Where the Thanksgiving weekend gave us clarity in recent years much will remain uncertain in this year’s races, most likely up until nominations in January.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see any films separate from the pack right up until Oscar night, stay posted.

THE MASTER

 

The last time a Paul Thomas Anderson picture played on screens around the world we got ‘There Will Be Blood’, now, five long years later, he delivers ‘The Master’.  What had been hyped as the “Scientology” movie, Anderson explores something different entirely, using a pseudo “religion” and book (‘The Cause’) simply to add scenery.  The film deals much less with intricacies of the polarizing religion of Scientology, although plot roots do stem from the aforementioned, and much more with the psycho/social aspects of our pasts and the relationship(s) of our leaders and followers.

Right away, with PT Anderson (see also ‘Magnolia’ and ‘Boogie Nights’), we can be thinking Oscar.  However Anderson, who can steer towards incoherence and lack of cohesive story structure, gives us his most fragmented and fractured film yet, something that can scare off the majority while strengthening the enthusiasm of his ardent followers (the Ron Paul effect).  This is evident on the Tomatometer.  The film garners a very respectable 85% currently, yet if the majority of critics were like me it wouldn’t fall too short of 100%.  It is a modern day masterpiece, something that will be viewed as underrated in future decades.  For anyone that saw Malick’s ‘The Tree of Life’ last year, this is probably my favorite film since, definitely a top five film of the last few years.

Anderson brings two things to the table he never seems to be lacking; incredibly thought provoking situations/scenes that progress or showcase his characters and some of the best, most spot on dialogue of any screenwriter in the business.  From his main character Freddie’s (Joaquin Phoenix) drunken sexual encounter with a sand mermaid to Lancaster Dodd’s (the incomparable Phillip Seymour Hoffman) angry exchange with a doubter at a fundraising event, Anderson puts his characters in situations where they are vulnerable, intimate, and can display their motives.

Although Anderson is the real star of the show, Phoenix and Hoffman are no slouches.  Both vets with Oscar noms under their belts they should be shoe-ins for some Academy attention, my only worries would be the film’s polarizing effect so far and the lack of people seeing/talking about it as a frontrunner.  Amy Adams puts in a good effort as Dodd’s steadfast wife; don’t be surprised to see the young vet’s name thrown around in Oscar circles for a supporting nod come January.

Since 2009’s ‘The Hurt Locker’ I have had the misfortune of enjoying the best films of the year just not the Oscar’s view of best films of the year, although I did much appreciate the Academy paying homage to history by recognizing ‘The Artist’.  This year will be no different unless something can sway my gaze from ‘The Master’, which will get attention and its followers excited, just not the votes needed, with the exception of Phoenix and Hoffman, to run to the podium.

Oscar Chances:

Best Picture: Highly Likely

Best Director (Anderson): Highly Likely

Best Original Screenplay (Anderson): Lock

Best Actor (Phoenix): Lock

Best Supporting Actor (Hoffman): Lock

Best Supporting Actress (Adams): Possible

Best Cinematography: Highly Likely

Best Editing: Possible

Best Art Direction: Possible

Best Score: Possible

LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER OVERVIEW

 

Alright, so a slew of good films are starting to roll out to local theatres, as some of you know it was definitely an underwhelming summer so this comes as a sigh of relief.  The tomatometer may be telling of a film’s quality however it is a maddening tool to map Oscar possibilities, such is the nature of Oscar politics.  What I’ve seen recently and their Oscar chances:

‘Looper’: Original Screenplay (Rian Johnson) Possible, Supporting Actor (Bruce Willis) Long Shot

‘End of Watch’: none, although a well done “found footage” film

‘Frankenweenie’: Animated Feature (Tim Burton) Lock, good return to form after multiple lackluster showings from Burton

There was some buzz surrounding ‘Trouble with the Curve’ before it opened but chatter has been squelched by lackluster reviews.  There are rumors this will be Eastwood’s last acting effort which would be a shame to see him exit on a low note, hopefully he can throw out one more gem and ride into the sunset.  ‘Pitch Perfect’ is reviewing fairly well but even without seeing it I can assure everyone there will be no Oscar talk, just an entertaining romp to waste some weekend hours.  Opening this week, ‘Argo’ (which I saw in Telluride and reviewed), ‘Seven Psychopaths’ (‘In Bruges’ director Martin McDonagh), ‘Sinister’ (reviewing surprisingly well), and ‘Smashed’ (indie hit at Sundance starring Breaking Bad actor Aaron Paul), going to be a busy weekend.

I was fortunate to finally see ‘The Master’ today; a full dedicated review is required, look for it within the next few days.

‘Til then.

TORONTO INTERNATIONAL FILM FEST WRAP UP

 

Still haven’t been able to make it to TIFF, on my radar in the next few years, but Indie Wire has put out a thorough, comprehensive review of all the important films shown.  On page 2 of the article there is a grade ranking of both premieres and films that were at TIFF but premiered elsewhere.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/tiff-wrap-up-our-5-favorite-films-of-the-festival-plus-our-complete-coverage-20120917#

A few of the films that jump out: ‘The Place Beyond the Pines’ (directed by Cianfrance, see ‘Blue Valentine’), ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ (David O. Russel pic, see ‘The Fighter’), ‘Looper’ (sitting at 100% on RT currently), ‘Anna Karenina’ (Knightley teams up with ‘Pride and Prejudice’ and ‘Atonement’ director Joe Wright), ‘End of Watch’ (cop drama dropping this weekend with Gyllenhaal, received low grade), ‘Cloud Atlas’ (Hanks, low grade as well), ‘Argo’ (Affleck pic, was at TFF), ‘The Sessions’ (Oscar potential), ‘Rust and Bone’ ‘Amour’ ‘Hyde Park on Hudson’ ‘Frances Ha’ ‘Ginger and Rosa’ ‘The Sapphires’ (all at TFF).

I have seen a couple of these at TFF and some are opening wide within the next few weeks, reviews to come.   This weekend; ‘End of Watch’, ‘Dredd’, and ‘Trouble with the Curve’ all release wide, doubt much Oscar clout will be present but stranger things have happened.