OCTOBER WRAP UP

Another strong lineup of films opened in theaters throughout October and into November, proving this season will have an extremely deep field in comparison to recent years.  The last half dozen years or so have had major “front-runners” in most of the categories and hotly contested races in just a handful (and those contested races usually had a clear top two, ex. Streep and Davis for Actress last year), not unlike the swing states in the recent election.  However, this year we seem to have just the opposite, a litany of categories with no clear leader and up to three players in a lot of races instead of the standard first/second choice.  Before diving into the races let’s look at some of these Oct/Nov films and their Oscar chances:

Films I’ve seen

-        ‘Seven Psychopaths’: Best Picture would be a long shot but Best Original Screenplay for Martin McDonagh wouldn’t be farfetched whatsoever.  Christopher Walken could get a Supporting Actor nod but with Best Lead/Supporting Actor being loaded this year it could be tough.

-        ‘Skyfall’: Whenever you have Mendes behind the camera you’re never out of it but as I’ve touched on in past posts, larger blockbuster films have had little success in recent years compared to the late 90s/early 2000s (‘Dark Knight’ trilogy vs. ‘Titanic’ and ‘Gladiator’).  Best chances for the latest Bond entry would be Cinematography, Supporting Actor Javier Bardem, Art Direction, Editing and other tech categories, and long shots would be Picture and Daniel Craig as Lead Actor.

Films I haven’t but am planning to see:

-        ‘Lincoln’: From what people are saying we could have up to three acting noms; Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, and Sally Field, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Costume Design, Makeup, Art Direction, Editing and tech categories.  Spielberg didn’t do so well with the critics the last time he took on a period piece (last year’s ‘War Horse’, severely underrated in my opinion) but early reviews for his Abraham Lincoln biopic have been overwhelmingly positive.  After seeing it this upcoming weekend I will probably have a full review.

-        ‘Flight’: ‘Forrest Gump’ director Robert Zemeckis’ first live action film since ‘Cast Away’ in 2000 has a good shot at securing a Lead Acting nom for Denzel Washington and a decent shot at Best Picture.  Less likely would be a Director or Screenplay nom but not out of the realm of possibility.

-        ‘The Sessions’: Truly an actor’s film, nominations for John Hawkes and Helen Hunt are safe bets and an Original Screenplay appearance wouldn’t be unexpected.

-        ‘Wreck-It-Ralph’: Best Animated Feature could be the most exciting race in the category in some time, ‘Ralph’ is joined by ‘Frankenweenie’, ‘The Secret World of Arriety’, and ‘Brave’.

Films I have not/will not see:

-        ‘Perks of Being a Wallflower’, ‘Cloud Atlas’, and ‘Smashed’: No Oscar predictions on these films because there is little to no buzz surrounding them and I haven’t experienced any of them myself (combination of lack of interest and lackluster reviews are keeping me away).  Only surprises I have heard out of these would be Tom Hanks for Best Actor ‘Cloud Atlas’ or ‘Perks’ for a very unexpected Screenplay or Picture nomination. 

The Races

These are races that have at least three films with “good” chances at a win come Oscar night.  This is purely speculative and the chances of frontrunners appearing as January nears is always a possibility, but this should highlight how deep the field is at this point:

Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original and Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Editing, Makeup, Song, Score, and all of the tech categories.  That only leaves the Actress categories, which I believe are still up for grabs but in my estimation are already one or two person races at this point.

Coming up this week and into next I will have a wrap up of the Denver Film Festival as well as a full review on ‘Silver Linings Playbook’.  Films to see in the near future include ‘Lincoln’, ‘Flight’, and ‘The Sessions’ as well as ‘Life of Pi’, ‘Hitchcock’, and ‘Killing Them Softly’ all before we crack December.  Where the Thanksgiving weekend gave us clarity in recent years much will remain uncertain in this year’s races, most likely up until nominations in January.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see any films separate from the pack right up until Oscar night, stay posted.