The
one thing that is usually certain, a formality really, on Oscar nomination
morning is there will be a handful of surprises. There will be those who didn’t
garner much attention during the season that sneak in with a nomination, and of
course those that were overlooked, the snubs. But in a year that has seen very
little movement, and had films that secured frontrunner status since early
October, there was one surprise when the nominations were announced: that the
Academy, for the most part, got it right. At five A.M. on Thursday 1/16, when
Chris Hemsworth and Cheryl Boone Issacs, the Academy president, read the
nominations there were no uproars in critic’s circles, no Twittersphere chants
of wrongdoing, and no cries for the missing Saving
Mr. Banks. No, the Oscar nomination announcement was rather uneventful,
unfortunately the way it probably should be every year.
With
that said, let’s take a look at the nominees and break down where there could
be a claim of snubbery as well as see which categories are primed to produce
close races:
Best Picture
Not
a lot of surprises here, the big frontrunners all season, for Picture and
various other categories, have been 12
Years a Slave and Gravity. The
two films remain the top two favorites for the category along with American Hustle a close third. 12 Years won the Golden Globe and
Critics Choice awards so it has the slight edge now but with well over a month
to go things can change. It should be noted that American Hustle won Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG Awards. Because
the SAG Awards only recognize acting it’s hard to say that Hustle is now in the
mix but the Best Ensemble Cast in a Drama at the SAGs has shown some
correlation to Best Picture wins in the past, something to keep an eye on. The
only nom that is somewhat of a surprise is Philomena.
Not to say it’s not deserving, and I have not seen it, but I would have thought
a film like All Is Lost or Fruitvale Station had a better chance of
getting in. All things considered no real snubs in the category.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The
Best Actor category looked like one of the tighter races at the beginning of
the season but in the last couple of weeks there has been separation. I’m
speaking about favorites Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years). It has been well documented that films covering the
Holocaust, WWII, race related issues, and the like usually turn out the voting
Academy. However when you have an HIV/AIDS patient going up against a free
black man sold into slavery all bets are off. In what looked like a neck and
neck bout on paper, with each actor getting support and awards from different
bodies of critics, McConaughey has now swept the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice,
and SAG awards making it all the more difficult for Ejiofor to make a comeback.
The last big award barometer is the BAFTAs, if McConaughey grabs that as well
look for him to take home the Oscar. DiCaprio and Bale are a little bit of a surprise
here, not because they didn’t give great performances but because Wolf of Wall Street wasn’t a huge
critical success and American Hustle
was more of an ensemble piece than a vehicle for Bale. There’s a little bit of
a snub factor for Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
and Robert Redford (All Is Lost).
Best Actress in a Leading Role
One
of the weaker categories on paper this year, The Best Actress Oscar is all but
wrapped up for Cate Blanchett for her turn in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. She has all the critics
wins leading up to the first big award week and then promptly swept the Golden
Globe, Critic’s Choice, and SAG awards like McConaughey. Right now the only
contender, albeit an extreme dark horse at the moment, is Sandra Bullock for
Gravity. Bullock is well like by the voters and even won the Best Actress Oscar
for The Blind Side (the performance
was good but not great and the movie was extremely overrated). If anyone has a
chance to unseat Blanchett it’s Bullock. Meryl Streep secured her 18th
Oscar nomination, far and away the most ever, however August: Osage County hasn’t played well with the critics and Streep
is a long shot.
Actor and Actress in a Supporting Role
The
best races could very well end up being in the Supporting Actor and Actress
categories. The Supporting Actor race is led by Jared Leto for his role as a
cross dressing HIV/AIDS patient in Dallas
Buyers Club and the performance really was extraordinary. Not to be outdone
there is the gruesome performance turned in by Michael Fassbender as a slave
owner in 12 Years, which in many
other years would be the hands down favorite. Leto has dominated so far with a
Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice, and SAG sweep. Fassbender is due after being
looked over for so many other great performances but he may have to wait at
least another year. Bradley Cooper (Hustle)
is on the outside looking in hoping that Leto and Fassbender split votes to
send him to the podium. The closest race of the season so far is for Supporting
Actress. Jennifer Lawrence won the Globe for American Hustle and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years) took home the Critic’s Choice and SAG awards. Lawrence is
well liked by the Academy and really is mesmerizing in Hustle but Nyong’o steals the show in 12 Years. Nyong’o complements the performances of Ejiofor and
Fassbender well and elevated the film as a whole. She captures both the despair
of the situation and the perseverance of the human spirit in perfect harmony.
Right now it’s a push but if I had to choose I’d give Nyong’o the slight edge.
Best Director
Martin
Scorsese is the name everyone recognizes but he, along with the voting Academy,
knows the nomination is the win for Wolf
of Wall Street. This year has a few directors that have been nominated
before; Scorsese, Alexander Payne (Nebraska),
and David O. Russell (American Hustle),
but the race as it stands is between two newcomers: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) and Steve McQueen (12 Years). Cuaron has been nominated
previously for his screenplays (Children
of Men and Y Tu Mama Tambien) but
it is his first directing nom. As it stands Cuaron has the momentum after
sweeping the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice. It is unfortunate because I
think 12 Years is more of a directing
feat than Gravity. Sure Gravity is a great film and Cuaron’s
vision should not be discounted but it stands on visual merit and grandiose
scope. 12 Years gathers amazing
performances, a terrific script, perfect pacing, and great traditional
cinematography to boast an overall great picture. The ability to harness all
those elements into a complete work is more of an accomplishment in my eyes.
Unfortunately I think Cuaron will best McQueen when it’s all said and done.
Best Screenplay, Original and Adapted
The
Screenplay categories, both Original and Adapted, are a little clearer at this
point in time. The Original Screenplay victor should be decided between American Hustle and Her. Her, for its truly
original story and social commentary on how we relate and evolve with
technology should be applauded but the Academy has yet to show any love to
Spike Jonze and David O. Russell’s American
Hustle will most likely win. In the Adapted category there’s really no
opponent to what John Ridley did with Solomon Northup’s account of his life in 12 Years a Slave and I expect a win
there.
Technical and Other Categories
The
tech Oscars, specifically Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, and Sound
will probably all go to Gravity, and rightfully so. This film lives and dies
with how the audience interpreted its visual prowess and it delivered. Other
categories of note are Animated Feature where a win for Frozen seems like a
good bet and Achievement in Hair and Makeup where Dallas Buyers Club should be
a lock.
Due
to this year’s Olympics in February the Oscars have been pushed back all the
way until March 2nd. The good news being it should give voters ample
time to screen anything they haven’t before casting their ballots. The bad news
is we still need to wait another month to settle all these races. In a season
that has seen very little surprises Oscar Night just might provide a few of
them.
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