The Sealed Envelope: Oscar Coverage, Predictions, & Politics
Sunday, March 30, 2014
2013-14 Oscar Season Wrap Up
The awards were handed out nearly a month ago and finally getting around to wrapping up the 2013-14 season. The long and short of it was the winners were ultimately predictable. Building on last year I predicted 22 out of 24 categories correctly! Only missing on Best Documentary and Best Animated Short. The telecast was fairly uneventful, Ellen got annoying by the end of it as expected, but it was bookended nicely with a much deserved Best Picture win for 12 Years A Slave.
And with that its on to the award season doldrums, the summer blockbusters are rolling out earlier year after year and Noah along with Captain America are already getting 2014 started. However the Oscar darlings won't start rearing their heads until Cannes closes in late May and from there the late summer festival circuit will start to separate the wheat from the chaff. If you've been reading thanks for tuning in, until this upcoming season (late August), happy screenings...
Sunday, February 9, 2014
2014 OSCAR PREVIEW IN REVERE MAGAZINE
The
one thing that is usually certain, a formality really, on Oscar nomination
morning is there will be a handful of surprises. There will be those who didn’t
garner much attention during the season that sneak in with a nomination, and of
course those that were overlooked, the snubs. But in a year that has seen very
little movement, and had films that secured frontrunner status since early
October, there was one surprise when the nominations were announced: that the
Academy, for the most part, got it right. At five A.M. on Thursday 1/16, when
Chris Hemsworth and Cheryl Boone Issacs, the Academy president, read the
nominations there were no uproars in critic’s circles, no Twittersphere chants
of wrongdoing, and no cries for the missing Saving
Mr. Banks. No, the Oscar nomination announcement was rather uneventful,
unfortunately the way it probably should be every year.
With
that said, let’s take a look at the nominees and break down where there could
be a claim of snubbery as well as see which categories are primed to produce
close races:
Best Picture
Not
a lot of surprises here, the big frontrunners all season, for Picture and
various other categories, have been 12
Years a Slave and Gravity. The
two films remain the top two favorites for the category along with American Hustle a close third. 12 Years won the Golden Globe and
Critics Choice awards so it has the slight edge now but with well over a month
to go things can change. It should be noted that American Hustle won Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG Awards. Because
the SAG Awards only recognize acting it’s hard to say that Hustle is now in the
mix but the Best Ensemble Cast in a Drama at the SAGs has shown some
correlation to Best Picture wins in the past, something to keep an eye on. The
only nom that is somewhat of a surprise is Philomena.
Not to say it’s not deserving, and I have not seen it, but I would have thought
a film like All Is Lost or Fruitvale Station had a better chance of
getting in. All things considered no real snubs in the category.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The
Best Actor category looked like one of the tighter races at the beginning of
the season but in the last couple of weeks there has been separation. I’m
speaking about favorites Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years). It has been well documented that films covering the
Holocaust, WWII, race related issues, and the like usually turn out the voting
Academy. However when you have an HIV/AIDS patient going up against a free
black man sold into slavery all bets are off. In what looked like a neck and
neck bout on paper, with each actor getting support and awards from different
bodies of critics, McConaughey has now swept the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice,
and SAG awards making it all the more difficult for Ejiofor to make a comeback.
The last big award barometer is the BAFTAs, if McConaughey grabs that as well
look for him to take home the Oscar. DiCaprio and Bale are a little bit of a surprise
here, not because they didn’t give great performances but because Wolf of Wall Street wasn’t a huge
critical success and American Hustle
was more of an ensemble piece than a vehicle for Bale. There’s a little bit of
a snub factor for Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
and Robert Redford (All Is Lost).
Best Actress in a Leading Role
One
of the weaker categories on paper this year, The Best Actress Oscar is all but
wrapped up for Cate Blanchett for her turn in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. She has all the critics
wins leading up to the first big award week and then promptly swept the Golden
Globe, Critic’s Choice, and SAG awards like McConaughey. Right now the only
contender, albeit an extreme dark horse at the moment, is Sandra Bullock for
Gravity. Bullock is well like by the voters and even won the Best Actress Oscar
for The Blind Side (the performance
was good but not great and the movie was extremely overrated). If anyone has a
chance to unseat Blanchett it’s Bullock. Meryl Streep secured her 18th
Oscar nomination, far and away the most ever, however August: Osage County hasn’t played well with the critics and Streep
is a long shot.
Actor and Actress in a Supporting Role
The
best races could very well end up being in the Supporting Actor and Actress
categories. The Supporting Actor race is led by Jared Leto for his role as a
cross dressing HIV/AIDS patient in Dallas
Buyers Club and the performance really was extraordinary. Not to be outdone
there is the gruesome performance turned in by Michael Fassbender as a slave
owner in 12 Years, which in many
other years would be the hands down favorite. Leto has dominated so far with a
Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice, and SAG sweep. Fassbender is due after being
looked over for so many other great performances but he may have to wait at
least another year. Bradley Cooper (Hustle)
is on the outside looking in hoping that Leto and Fassbender split votes to
send him to the podium. The closest race of the season so far is for Supporting
Actress. Jennifer Lawrence won the Globe for American Hustle and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years) took home the Critic’s Choice and SAG awards. Lawrence is
well liked by the Academy and really is mesmerizing in Hustle but Nyong’o steals the show in 12 Years. Nyong’o complements the performances of Ejiofor and
Fassbender well and elevated the film as a whole. She captures both the despair
of the situation and the perseverance of the human spirit in perfect harmony.
Right now it’s a push but if I had to choose I’d give Nyong’o the slight edge.
Best Director
Martin
Scorsese is the name everyone recognizes but he, along with the voting Academy,
knows the nomination is the win for Wolf
of Wall Street. This year has a few directors that have been nominated
before; Scorsese, Alexander Payne (Nebraska),
and David O. Russell (American Hustle),
but the race as it stands is between two newcomers: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) and Steve McQueen (12 Years). Cuaron has been nominated
previously for his screenplays (Children
of Men and Y Tu Mama Tambien) but
it is his first directing nom. As it stands Cuaron has the momentum after
sweeping the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice. It is unfortunate because I
think 12 Years is more of a directing
feat than Gravity. Sure Gravity is a great film and Cuaron’s
vision should not be discounted but it stands on visual merit and grandiose
scope. 12 Years gathers amazing
performances, a terrific script, perfect pacing, and great traditional
cinematography to boast an overall great picture. The ability to harness all
those elements into a complete work is more of an accomplishment in my eyes.
Unfortunately I think Cuaron will best McQueen when it’s all said and done.
Best Screenplay, Original and Adapted
The
Screenplay categories, both Original and Adapted, are a little clearer at this
point in time. The Original Screenplay victor should be decided between American Hustle and Her. Her, for its truly
original story and social commentary on how we relate and evolve with
technology should be applauded but the Academy has yet to show any love to
Spike Jonze and David O. Russell’s American
Hustle will most likely win. In the Adapted category there’s really no
opponent to what John Ridley did with Solomon Northup’s account of his life in 12 Years a Slave and I expect a win
there.
Technical and Other Categories
The
tech Oscars, specifically Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, and Sound
will probably all go to Gravity, and rightfully so. This film lives and dies
with how the audience interpreted its visual prowess and it delivered. Other
categories of note are Animated Feature where a win for Frozen seems like a
good bet and Achievement in Hair and Makeup where Dallas Buyers Club should be
a lock.
Due
to this year’s Olympics in February the Oscars have been pushed back all the
way until March 2nd. The good news being it should give voters ample
time to screen anything they haven’t before casting their ballots. The bad news
is we still need to wait another month to settle all these races. In a season
that has seen very little surprises Oscar Night just might provide a few of
them.
Monday, February 3, 2014
SUNDANCE 2014
Ever since attending the Telluride Film Festival for
the first time in 2012 I’ve made it a goal to hit all the major festivals
(Sundance, Toronto, NY, Venice, Berlin…Cannes if I can ever get an invite) on
the global and awards circuit. Considering the geographic and fiscal restraints
of many of the festivals the logical choice for my second major festival was
Sundance. So this year, with the help of a cheap ticket on Frontier and the
hospitality of staying with friends who live in Salt Lake, I was able to make
the 2014 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, Utah.
Sundance, along with many of the other festivals,
works a little differently than Telluride. The schedule is released well in
advance and if you aren’t a pass holder you even have the opportunity to buy
single tickets online before getting to the mountains. Sundance lasts much
longer and includes more films, Sundance lasts ten days while Telluride is only
four. The biggest and most apparent difference however is the festivals
coverage.
Although Sundance is famous for its inclusion of
primarily indie films the media hype and corporate presence is vast. Telluride
had 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wind
Rises…some of this year’s biggest Oscar contenders, yet it feels like
Hollywood isn’t even there. No huge VIP parties, no goodie bag giveaways, I
didn’t even see a cop the whole time I was there last year. The reason being is
everyone in Hollywood is trying to find that next big thing, where they can
invest on the cheap and reap a big return. Whereas festivals like Telluride and
Toronto have the big lineups and the majority of the films already have the
distribution backing needed.
There are definite benefits to the way Sundance is
conducted. The ability to see what’s playing and get tickets (if you’re not a
pass holder) before showing up is a big selling point and relieves some of the
stress of uncertainty that Telluride poses. The inclusion of a large corporate
presence is nice because there are freebies everywhere. Chase Sapphire, one of
the festival’s main sponsors, hosted a free VIP party with cocktails and
appetizers for cardholders, while Airbnb had a free Bingo and Beer event. Only
being there for a few days meant missing some of the other opportunities to
score some giveaways but the two events I was able to go to where awesome.
Unfortunately there are downfalls as well. Because
the film is made up of lesser known films, studios, and filmmakers there is a
greater possibility you’re going to run into a dud of a film. Case in point:
Jamie Marks Is Dead, the first film I saw. The director Carter Smith has only
one recognizable film under his belt, Ruins, which was eh…ok at best. It
suffers from a terrible script, no conceivable message, and lukewarm performances.
Most of the audience didn’t stick around for the Q&A afterwards. Also, the
corporate presence, although welcomed in some areas, can be a little
overbearing and take away from the real reason most of the attendees are there,
the films.
The only other film I got to see was Rich Hill, the eventual winner for U.S.
Grand Jury Prize: Documentary. The film was an intimate portrait of three
families struggling with poverty in Middle America. The film did a great job
showcasing the hardships of the families while also showing the inherent hope
they all possessed.
All
things considered I was very impressed with the festival Sundance puts on and I
look forward to returning next year. NOTE:
The film Whiplash won U.S. Grand
Jury Prize: Dramatic, look for it to get wide distribution later this year.
Saturday, January 11, 2014
DECEMBER UPDATE & PRE-GOLDEN GLOBE PICTURE
The former is anchored by great performances and could see Christian Bale and Jennifer Lawrence represent the film with nominations. David O. Russell is an Academy favorite after The Fighter and last year's Silver Lining Playbook so a Directing and/or Screenplay nom is possible. The film overall lacks a roaring fan base and although well liked by critics and with only minor flaws I don't see it really contending for Best Picture, Editing, or any of the big categories.
The Wolf of Wall Street suffers from being outrageous to a fault. Leo gives a good if not over the top performance and Jonah Hill is hilarious as his partner. The Best Actor field is loaded so seeing Leo get a nom much less a well overdue win is highly unlikely. The Supporting Actor category, after Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender, is fairly open so we could see Hill grab his second career nomination. The film is too uneven, especially in its final third, and too ridiculous and crude to see it be marked a contender, but due to Scorsese's named being attached we could see some nominations in the Best Picture and Screenplay categories.
The two films with limited releases that still haven't gotten the buzz going (which may be a good play as it's usually the films that catch fire after the Globes that do well at the Oscars) are Inside Llewyn Davis and Her. I profiled Llweyn Davis after seeing it at the Telluride Film Fest and it was very Cohen Brothers. Quirky for sure, and probably to the point of turning off voters, however I could see a dark horse nom for Oscar Issacs for Best Actor and it being a Cohen Brothers film, Director and Screenplay are never off the table. The music in the film is superb and Best Song and Score noms are virtual locks.
Her is the real mystery this season. Not everyone has seen it but Spike Jonze has a huge faithful following and might be due after Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Where the Wild Things Are. The Academy hates Joaquin Phoenix unfortunately and that may turn voters away. Very unfortunate considering I thought he should have won Best Actor last yThe Master, I was incredibly surprised he was even nominated. All that being said, Best Actor, Screenplay, Director, Picture, and Supporting Actress are all possibilities.
ear for
We should know more after the Globes telecast tomorrow but for a season that has been fairly predictable so far we could see some surprises. Stay tuned. Below are the SAG and BAFTA nominations that have been announced:
http://www.sagawards.org/media-pr/press-releases/nominations-announced-20th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards%C2%AE
http://www.bafta.org/press/nominations-announced-for-the-ee-british-academy-film-awards-in-2014,311,SNS.html
Saturday, December 14, 2013
2014 GOLDEN GLOBE NOMS
American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, and Wolf of Wall Street all in the Musical or Comedy categories?? C'mon Globes, I know you want to support the best films out there and it was a weak year for comedies and musicals, as is usually the case when put up against dramas, but those films are stretching the definition any way you put it.
The only benefit we'll see is more of the best films being awarded and it could make it much more difficult to predict the Oscars because a lot of the heavy favorites won't be going head to head. Interesting to say the least. Here are the noms:
http://www.goldenglobes.com/awards
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
NOVEMBER WRAP UP AND WHAT REMAINS TO BE SCREENED
Considering the amount of films I was able to screen at the Telluride Film Festival, along with my heaving viewing schedule in September and October, I haven't had the chance, or need for that matter, to see many films since my last entry. On top of what I've already seen, I added Out of the Furnace, All Is Lost, and Dallas Buyers Club to my list in the month of November. That isn't to say there hasn't been some movement in the Oscar races.
I saw Out of the Furnace at a special screening at the Denver Film Festival, which was surprising because we were only the second public audience in the world to screen it. For a festival the stature of Denver that was quite the experience. On the whole the film was satisfying in a number of ways. The taught directing and script of Scott Cooper and the ensemble performance of Christian Bale, Casey Affleck, Willem Dafoe, Woodly Harrleson, and veteran Sam Shepard in particular. The subject matter and pace suggest a modern day Deer Hunter with the Iraq War as the backdrop but the narrower scope of the film downplays that notion. As we saw last year 2014 has a deep field of players and although Furnace succeeds in many areas it might not do anything quite well enough to grab any serious nominations.
All Is Lost is a vehicle where sole credit lies with two people, actor Robert Redford and writer/director J.C. Chandor. Redford seems a lock at this point to capture a Best Actor nomination as the lost at sea survivalist. A role that could be overdone, Redford is calm and collected, all the whilst knowing there is little hope to escape demise. Chandor took a big risk transitioning from his first film Margin Call, chock full of witty dialogue and boasting a large talented cast, to a film with no dialouge and only one actor throughout. Thankfully he pulls it off and it will ultimately be a milestone in both Redford's storied and Chandor's budding career. Look for noms for Best Picture, Best Actor, Screenplay, and possibly Directing for Chandor.
Can the Best Actor race get any more crowded? In addition to Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years), Redford, Bruce Dern (Nebraska), and possibly Bale (Furnace) Matthew McConaughey turns in the performance of his career in Dallas Buyers Club. Playing the role of real life homophobic AIDS patient Ron Woodroof, McConaughey steals the screen with an emotionally powerful display of the resilience of the human body. McConaughey, who dropped almost 50 pounds for the role, uses his physical deterioration in perfect contrast with the strength of his character's will to live. Jared Leto, who hasn't graced the big screen in over four years, is almost unrecognizable in his harrowing performance as Woodroof's cross dressing business partner and eventual friend. Both are virtual locks for the Best Actor and Supporting Actor categories with real chances at winning the awards. Also look for Best Picture and Screenplay nominations, although due to the smaller nature of the story and script Dallas Buyers will be a dark horse to win.
The additions of All Is Lost and Dallas Buyers Club hasn't changed the front runner status of films like 12 Years a Slave or Gravity although it has lowered the probability of easy wins for either films. The Best Actor race is the most heated at the moment and until we see all the films to release in December the Best Picture race will be clouded. In the coming weeks we have Frozen (Best Animated Feature front runner), Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, Wolf of Wall Street, and Her all still to be released. Hopefully by late December, and once the Golden Globe noms are announced, we'll have a clearer picture.
2014 INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED
It looks like the big winners here are 12 Years a Slave, Nebraska, and All Is Lost all films that will garner much Oscar attention. The annual award show, honoring indie films from the past year will air in it's usual Saturday slot the night before the Oscars. Telecast will take place Saturday March 1st, 2014 on IFC. Here are the nominees:
http://www.spiritawards.com/nominees
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