Less than two months removed from the 2012 Oscar telecast and there is already buzz about a new film’s 2013 chances. The Hunger Games. I was hoping I would get more of a break before dissecting a film’s chances in the upcoming season but due to the box office stature of the most discussed blockbuster in March release history I found it prudent.
As has been the case with all of the critically acclaimed summer releases within the past half decade, The Hunger Games has already garnered support from the masses as an Oscar relevant picture. Hunger Games however has more working against it than even some of the films higher on the Rotten Tomato scale throughout the past few years (The Dark Knight, Harry Potter, and Toy Story 3, ECT.). But first the similarities:
1. Acting ensemble piece – yes Jennifer Lawrence’s Katniss is the star but when a film of this magnitude has so many supporting pieces and ones that give great performances, the leads don’t stand out as much in The Academy’s eyes.
2. Huge box office performance – in earlier years this was a sign of future success at the Oscar ceremony, as recent as the late 90s and early 2000s (Titanic, Gladiator, Lord of the Rings trilogy) however in the past 7 years not one film that has finished near the top of the annual box has had wide praise from the Academy.
3. Pop culture source material – from largely popular book series to the revival of classic comics, adaptation from the pop-strata has spelled large box office but limited Oscar success in recent years.
In addition to all The Hunger Games has in common with recent blockbusters it also has some extra aspects that work against it:
1. A very early release – summer releases have a hard enough time staying relevant long enough to be in the discussion come December/January now Hunger Games has to remain at the front of the Academy’s mind for over 10 months.
2. Less critical success than other blockbusters – Most of the films I’ve noted above have been well into the mid 90s% on Rotten Tomatoes, The Hunger Games has settled into the 83-84% range.
The Hunger Games does have the luxury of having a slightly more appealing lead performance than some of these other films and also is competing in a year with less firepower in terms of summer releases (The Dark Knight Rises is the only other blockbuster on the docket right now with Oscar hopes). As always it will come down to two important variables for The Hunger Games: if it can carry any momentum up until nomination time and the competition. If it is a substantially weaker year in the Best Actress category we could see Lawrence nab her second Oscar nom.
I did enjoy the film more than I had intended and would always like to see blockbusters get the credit they deserve as I believe they have been undervalued of late. Happy Hunger Games everybody, and happy Oscar season!
Oscar Chances:
Best Picture: Long Shot
Best Actress (Lawrence): Long Shot
Technical categories, specifically costume design: Possible
